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Difficult times

  • People are staring at job losses
  • Small businesses facing tremendous pressure
  • Large Corporates waiting for drop in earnings

These are challenging times. The future may seem very uncertain while the country is locked down. Especially when everyone is watching the news channels while at home. The rate at which markets across the globe have fallen was never witnessed in the recent past. So swift were the responses from many Governments around the world, excepting a few. Our Government and the RBI too responded with lot of measures to boost sentiment, though not as fast as the US. This is not the first instance of such challenges, neither this would be the last. Now is the time to look ahead rather than worrying too much about what had happened.

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Let us look at an individual who was earning Rs 100/- a month. Suppose, in these circumstances, his wages temporarily dropped by 40%, what would be the response of the people around him ? Shocking look with questions like how would you survive ? The story would spread in that area and everyone would start asking embarrassing questions that would pull down the individual emotionally day by day. He would lose all hope and would start wondering whether he could make his ends meet !! We all know that this phase is temporary. After 3 or 6 months, would this individual, not get back to good times ?

Simply put, this is the state of the stock market now. A company that was earning Rs 100/- would definitely lose 20% in the next couple of quarters because of the lock down and related issues. But the shocking market participants ensured its share price dropped by 50% to 60%.

This every Fund Manager in the Mutual Fund Industry feels is a good opportunity to buy such a business as once the results start kicking in, prices will follow in line. This is the time to read what Peter Lynch said which is quoted above in the dotted box

This anxiety now will turn in to celebration over time !
RBI's announcements today

The Monteray Policy Committee today reduced the repo rate by 75 basis points and reverse repo rate by 90 basis points, in light of the coronavirus pandemic. It further refrained from projections of growth and inflation as the outlook is heavily dependent on the spread and containment of the virus. It announced a number of measures to increase liquidity and ease banking regulations during the challenging times.

  • RBI will conduct auctions of TLTRO of upto three-year tenor of appropriate sizes for a total amount upto Rs 1 lakh crore at a floating rate, linked to policy repo rate.
  • CRR of all banks to be reduced by 100 basis points to 3 percent beginning March 28, for one year.
  • This will release liquidity of 1,37,000 crore across the banking system MSF raised from 2 percent of SLR to 3 percent with immediate

The RBI will continue to remain vigilant and take whatever steps needed to mitigate the economic impact of Covid-19 and maintain financial stability in the country. All instruments - conventional and unconventional are on the table. The banking system is sound and macro economic fundamentals are stronger than they were after the global financial crisis, Das said